Kazakh analysts are divided over how escalating tensions between Iran, Israel and the U.S. could affect Kazakhstan’s economy, particularly oil prices and export opportunities.
Read also: Uranium and oil dip costs Kazakhstan a massive $4.1B.
Some experts believe global markets have already priced in geopolitical risks, making a sustained rise in oil prices unlikely. Others say short-term disruptions remain possible if the conflict spreads to key energy transit routes.
Oil prices already reflect risks
Olzhas Baidildinov, author of the Telegram channel Baidildinov.Oil, said current oil prices already account for regional instability and are unlikely to rise sharply.
He said there is currently no physical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, despite reports circulating in Iranian broadcasts suggesting restrictions on shipping. According to Baidildinov, commercial vessels continue to pass through the strait, although many ships are temporarily waiting nearby to avoid operating during active military tensions.
The analyst added that physically blocking the strait would be extremely difficult and would require actions — such as missile strikes on tankers — that could dramatically escalate the conflict.
Baidildinov also questioned the likelihood that Kazakhstan could significantly increase oil exports to China.
He noted that roughly 70% to 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports come from projects operated by American and European companies supplying European markets. Persian Gulf oil largely serves Asian buyers such as China and India, leaving limited room for Kazakhstan to redirect additional volumes eastward.
Short-term price spike possible
Abzal Narymbetov, author of the Telegram channel Energy Analytics, offered a more cautious outlook, saying renewed hostilities could trigger a temporary increase in oil prices.
He said any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz — through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass — would likely be short-lived because of the route’s critical importance to global energy markets.
According to Narymbetov, the countries most vulnerable to disruptions would be major oil importers, including China and India.
Read also: New sanctions pressure Rosatom as Kazakhstan’s nuclear project advances.
China remains one of the largest buyers of Iranian crude, meaning supply interruptions could force Beijing to seek alternative suppliers. In theory, this could create opportunities for Kazakhstan to expand exports.
However, Narymbetov said Kazakhstan’s production capacity limits such prospects. China produces roughly 4 million barrels of oil per day but consumes around 15-16 million barrels, leaving a substantial deficit. Even if Iranian supplies were disrupted, Kazakhstan would likely be unable to provide volumes large enough to meaningfully replace them.
