An unprecedented joint Israeli-U.S. military campaign against Iran has delivered a severe blow to China’s broader strategy in the Middle East. The crisis threatens Beijing’s energy security, undermines its defense export ambitions and disrupts key elements of its Belt and Road Initiative, according to reporting by Chinaobservers.eu.
Energy network under pressure
The turmoil in Iran represents the collapse of the final pillar in what analysts describe as a «triple shock» to China’s shadow energy network.
China had relied heavily on discounted oil from countries facing Western sanctions. But that network has steadily unraveled. Venezuelan crude shipments were seized by Washington, Russian exports have been constrained amid the war with Kyiv, and now Iranian supplies are disrupted by instability.
Read also: How the Israel-US-Iran conflict could impact Kazakhstan.
For years, Beijing structured its trade with Iran around non-dollar settlements and large barter arrangements designed to avoid U.S. sanctions. In some cases, Chinese companies exchanged manufactured goods — including vehicles — for Iranian metals and other resources.
That highly specialized barter ecosystem has now largely collapsed. Without it, China must turn to global spot markets, where it faces higher wartime prices and must settle large transactions in U.S. dollars.
Blow to China’s defense exports
The turmoil also threatens China’s growing military-industrial sector.
Political chaos in Tehran could void billions of dollars in potential defense deals. Among the reported possibilities were purchases of J-10C fighter jets and CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missiles.
Beyond the loss of specific contracts, the crisis risks damaging China’s reputation as a supplier of military technology. Observers note that countries in the Global South may question whether Chinese-made systems can perform effectively against Western military power.
Security credibility questioned
Perhaps the most lasting consequence may be reputational. The upheaval in Iran challenges Beijing’s image as a dependable alternative security partner to the U.S.
Read also: China-led Shanghai block defends Iran, calls for UN action after strikes.
Commentary circulating on social media increasingly portrays China as a «paper tiger» — a power willing to benefit economically through trade, investment and infrastructure financing but reluctant or unable to project military force to defend its partners.
For developing countries that had begun to view Beijing as a potential source of political backing and security cooperation, the crisis raises difficult questions about the limits of China’s support.
