Kazakhstan’s business activity deteriorated in March 2026, with the Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI falling to 47.4, reflecting a solid weakening in the manufacturing sector’s health, the most pronounced since 2022.
The rate was down from 48.1 in February and remained below the 50.0 no-change mark for a third consecutive month.
The key factor negatively affecting overall business conditions in March was a sharp and accelerated decline in manufacturing output. Production decreased for the third consecutive month, at the fastest pace since January 2022.
In line with the trend in output, new orders also declined for the third month in a row in March. However, the pace of decline was modest and slower than in February. Panelists reported subdued customer demand, though some noted signs of stabilization toward the end of the first quarter.
The rate of input cost inflation eased for the second consecutive month in March, after peaking in January following a VAT increase. Some panelists continued to link higher input prices to the tax rise, while others reported increased supplier charges for raw materials. That said, the latest increase was the slowest in two and a half years.
According to Saltanat Mukhambetaliyeva, head of economic research and analytics at Freedom Holding Operations, March’s PMI data highlights the extent to which manufacturers in Kazakhstan have scaled back operations in response to weak demand at the start of the year.
«Particularly notable were steep reductions in output, employment, and purchasing activity. That said, new orders declined only modestly, and to a lesser extent than in February. While firms are still feeling the effects of January’s VAT increase, these impacts are expected to continue to dissipate in the months ahead,» she emphasized.
