According to Kazakh economist Ruslan Sultanov, the structure of foreign investment in Kazakhstan has shifted. By the end of 2025, the manufacturing sector attracted more investment than mining for the first time.
Gross foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows reached $20.4 billion, a 14.4% increase compared with the 2024 level of $17.9 billion. The growth was driven primarily by non-resource sectors.
Investment in manufacturing rose to $4.4 billion, while mining attracted $3.4 billion. Investment in oil and gas production declined sharply to $0.6 billion, down from about $12.1 billion annually in 2018 and 2019.
In addition to manufacturing, investors increased activity in trade ($3.3 billion), the financial sector ($2.5 billion), information and communications ($1.3 billion), and transport and logistics ($1.3 billion).
The Netherlands ($4.6 billion), Russia ($2.9 billion) and China ($2.8 billion) remained the largest sources of investment. At the same time, inflows from the UAE ($1.6 billion), Singapore ($1.5 billion) and Qatar ($1.3 billion) grew significantly.
Geographically, investment remains concentrated in major cities such as Almaty ($8.6 billion) and Astana ($4 billion). Among resource-producing regions, the Atyrau region leads with $3.4 billion, despite a broader decline in interest in the oil sector.
Despite the increase in gross inflows, net FDI remained negative at -$0.9 billion.
Sultanov attributes this to large projects entering a mature stage, with companies reducing new investments and actively repatriating profits. As a result, dividend payments and debt servicing to foreign investors exceed new capital inflows, putting pressure on the tenge.
At the beginning of 2025, FDI inflows into Kazakhstan dropped sharply, reaching a historic low.
