In its macroeconomic forecast for 2026-2028, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) said it expects the average exchange rate this year to be 490 tenge per U.S. dollar. According to the forecast, the rate could reach 500 tenge per dollar by year-end.
Read also: How the Iran conflict will drive the dollar in 2026.
The EDB assessed key economic indicators across Central Asian countries and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). The organization’s experts said the tenge is being supported by high yields on local-currency instruments, driven by an elevated base rate. Foreign investors also remain interested in Kazakhstani bonds.
Higher oil prices are expected to support foreign-currency earnings as well. The EDB estimates that the average price of Brent crude will be $82 per barrel in 2026, helping bolster export revenues and foreign-exchange inflows.
Factors weighing on the currency
At the same time, several factors are expected to put pressure on the tenge. These include the gradual easing of monetary policy by the National Bank of Kazakhstan, a decline in oil prices from their peak levels in the first half of 2026, and rising imports.
EDB analysts expect the exchange rate to weaken further, reaching 515 tenge per U.S. dollar in 2027-2028.
