According to Azamat Amrin, Kazakhstan’s first vice minister of national economy, the country could receive additional budget revenue if high oil prices persist. Crude oil is currently trading at around $100 per barrel, while Kazakhstan’s 2027 budget assumes an oil price of $70 per barrel. Therefore, higher-than-projected oil prices could potentially boost budget revenue.
«If prices remain at the current level, this will generate additional revenue because our budget is based on an oil price of $70 per barrel. If the price is higher, this will result in additional budget revenue,» Amrin said.
According to the official, when setting budget parameters, the government relies on forecasts from international financial organizations rather than on current oil prices.
For this purpose, it analyzes estimates from around 18 organizations and uses them to develop a consensus forecast, which serves as the basis for budget planning.
«We rely specifically on forecasts from international financial organizations. Despite the current volatility, international financial institutions have established a consensus forecast, so when preparing the budget, we assumed an oil price of $70 per barrel,» Amrin emphasized.
He cited several forecasts as examples.
«JPMorgan estimates the oil price at $65 per barrel for the next period, the U.S. Department of Energy at below $70, and the World Bank at $73.40. We analyze forecasts from approximately 18 organizations and use them to develop a consensus forecast, which forms the basis of the budget,» Amrin said.
Despite current high prices, the government does not believe they are sufficient grounds to revise its baseline scenario.
To explain this position, Amrin pointed to significant fluctuations in oil prices throughout the year.
«This year, oil prices have ranged from $54 to $123 per barrel. You can see how wide that range is. Today, the price is around $105, but it could fall tomorrow. Therefore, the final revenue estimate will be based on the results for the full year,» he noted.
MP Tatyana Savelyeva, a member of the Finance and Budget Committee, also commented on a scenario in which oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel.
«MPs and journalists are also concerned about this issue and the possibility of oil prices reaching $120 per barrel. However, let’s be clear: this is a matter of geopolitics,» she said.
Savelyeva added that when assessing future oil-price trends, it is also necessary to monitor demand in China, one of the world’s largest oil consumers.
