Kazakhstan decreases forecast for its GDP growth for 2022

The estimated oil price is set at the level of $90 per barrel

According to Alibek Kuantyrov, minister of the national economy, the government plans to adjust the state budget due to the changing situation in the global economy. The estimated oil price for the current year is going to be about $90 per barrel. At the same time, the government has decreased its forecast for GDP growth in 2022 from 3.9% to 2.1%.

“A year-average oil price is set at the level of $90 per barrel. Based on this we have decreased the forecast for the GDP growth from 3.9% to 2.1%,” he said.

The formal volume of the country’s GDP is going to be about $193.6 billion which is $7.4 billion more than the approved forecast. The forecast for growth in the processing industry has been downgraded by 3.5% to 2.9%; the construction industry is going to see at 3.8%; and the forecast for the communication and information sector has dropped from 8.3% to 5% as the demand for IT services declined.

“The National Bank forecasts that exports may increase to $72.2 billion; import is going to reach $40.2 billion. The inflation rate is set at the level of 8-10%,” said Kuantyrov.

The revenue of the country’s budget is going to be about $21 billion or $2 billion more than the forecast that was previously approved. This growth is based on increased oil prices, which mean more customs fees; a new exchange rate of the national currency tenge and increased corporate income tax.

The government is also going to increase the guaranteed transfer to the National Welfare Fund. Now it is considering two options for that increase: $8.4 billion or $3.4 billion. The budget deficit may reach $6.3 billion or 3.3% of the national GDP. The level of the non-oil deficit is going to be about 10.2% of the GDP. The state budget expenditures will rise to $39.7 billion or $5.7 billion more than the forecast approved earlier.

All these adjustments to the state budget as well as the amount of the guaranteed transfer to the National Welfare Fund have already been approved by members of the government.

During the first two months of this year, Kazakhstan’s GDP growth was about 3.5% which is higher than the same period a year earlier. In 2021, Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 4%; therefore, the country’s government was aimed to ensure the same rate of growth in 2022.

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