Experts expect base rate to be cut in mid-January in Kazakhstan

According to the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan, the share of experts expecting that the base rate will be cut soon has risen from 76% to 94%.

The vast majority of interviewed experts expect the rate to be cut to 15% to 15.5%. Moreover, the National Bank is capable of lowering the rate «more decisively» during the next 12 months. The rate, for example, can reach 11.25% within a year (minus 450 basis points) following a decline in inflation expectations from 10.6% to 9.7%. In 2023, the regulator lowered the base rate by 100 basis points.

During the last similar survey, 69% out of 76% of respondents who expected the base rate to be cut said that the rate would drop from 15.75% to 15.5%. Another third of experts forecasted the rate at 15.25%.

In late November 2023, the National Bank cut the base rate from 16% to 15.75% even though Timur Suleymenov, head of the central bank, warned about the risks of doing that just a month before.

The National Bank also interviewed Kazakhstani financiers about the average base rate in 2024, 2025 and 2026. Respondents expect the rate at 13.5% this year, 10% in 2025 and 9% in 2026.