Why Kazakhstanis are spending more on food than ever
Domestic trade remains one of the largest sectors of Kazakhstan’s economy, accounting for 19.2% of GDP at the end of 2025. However, the sector showed signs of cooling in early 2026, with growth slowing to 4.8% in the first quarter, down from 6.3% a year earlier.
Wholesale trade drives overall growth
Wholesale trade remained the primary growth driver. In real terms, it expanded 5.8% year over year to 10.8 trillion tenge (approx. $23 billion) by the end of the first quarter, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. The segment accounted for 67.6% of total domestic trade turnover.
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Nonfood and industrial goods made up 80.1% of wholesale sales, with trade volume in these categories rising 11.2%. Performance in this segment closely tracks broader business and investment activity. From January through March 2026, fixed capital investment increased 6.4%, while the short-term economic indicator reached 102.5.
Consumer demand shifts toward essentials
Retail trade totaled 5.2 trillion tenge ($11 billion) in the first quarter of 2026, up 2.8% year over year. Demand shifted toward food products, which grew 8.1% and accounted for 31.0% of turnover, compared with 28.8% a year earlier.
Spending patterns reflect this shift. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the average Kazakh citizen allocated 52.4% of total expenditures to food, up from 50.1% a year earlier.
At the same time, tighter monetary policy has made consumer borrowing more expensive. The National Bank of Kazakhstan maintained a moderately tight stance, pushing the average interest rate on consumer loans to 21.4% in January-February 2026, compared with 20.6% in 2025. Consumer lending declined 8.3% in the first two months of the year, to 2.2 trillion tenge, partly due to stricter regulatory requirements for assessing borrower solvency.
Growth target faces headwinds
The cabinet is targeting 6.5% growth in domestic trade in 2026, but first-quarter performance remains below that goal.
Authorities point to several headwinds, including a value-added tax (VAT) increase, reduced consumer lending and declining household incomes.
E-commerce and logistics reshape the market
Structural shifts within the sector could support future growth. Consumers are increasingly turning to online marketplaces, while average order values are declining — a sign that e-commerce is becoming more embedded in everyday purchases such as groceries and household goods.
Read also: Digital goldmine: What Kazakhstanis really spend on online marketplaces.
The online retail market is highly concentrated. According to PwC estimates, major platforms — Kaspi.kz, Wildberries, Ozon and Halyk Market — account for about 92% of total turnover. In 2026, these companies shifted focus from aggressive market share expansion to improving operational efficiency and developing regional logistics networks.
Rising investment underscores this trend. Fixed capital investment in transportation and warehousing increased 7.9% year over year in January-March 2026, highlighting the growing importance of logistics infrastructure.
New state system aims to increase transparency
At the beginning of 2026, authorities launched the National Catalog of Goods, a new system designed to monitor trade turnover, reduce gray-market activity, combat counterfeiting and improve VAT collection.
The system is currently operating in test mode. Under the implementation schedule approved earlier this year, importers and manufacturers were required to transition by March 1, 2026; retail chains by April 1; and small businesses by July 1.
The phased rollout is intended to give government agencies time to refine the database while allowing businesses to adapt without incurring penalties due to potential technical issues.
