Kazakhstan reports sharp increase in dependence on Russian goods

According to Yernar Serik, a Kazakhstani trade policy expert and author of the Tradereport Telegram channel, Russia’s share of imports in 20 product categories increased from 89.6% to 90.8% last year. Kazakhstan is particularly dependent on its northern neighbor for energy and industrial raw materials, the expert noted.

Meanwhile, official statistics show that Russia’s overall share of Kazakhstan’s imports decreased from 30.8% in 2024 to 29.7% in 2025. However, for many product groups, the situation is different. Thus, for the top 20 commodities whose imports are crucial for Kazakhstan, Russia’s share increased from 89.6% to 90.8%.

Dependence is particularly strong in the energy sector. For gas, it increased by 7 percentage points (p.p.) to 89%; for electricity, it declined but remained at 93%; and for enriched uranium, it fell from 88% to 80%. Overall, for energy products such as kerosene, diesel and motor oils, Russia’s share of Kazakhstan’s imports stands at approximately 77%.

For industrial and construction goods, Russia’s share ranges from 80% to 100%. For example, for iron rods, the share increased by 4 p.p. to 91%, while for metal pipes, it rose to 87%. For semi-finished iron products, dependence is as high as 100%. In other words, Kazakhstan’s construction and processing industries are heavily dependent on Russian supplies, the expert emphasized.

Furthermore, dependence also remains high and continues to grow for many household goods. For sugar, it increased by 4 p.p. to 97%. For some types of knitwear and other textiles, including bedclothes, Russia’s share of imports reached 100%. The food sector is another example of Kazakhstan’s reliance on Russian products, with Russia accounting for 48% to 50% of imports. Dependence on Russian chocolate rose to 75%.

As Serik pointed out, when one country accounts for 80% to 100% of another country’s critical imports, it is no longer simply trade, but dependence.

«The problem isn’t trade with Russia itself. Clearly, geography, the EEU, and logistical and manufacturing ties make it our natural partner. The problem lies elsewhere: for a number of goods, Kazakhstan has no alternative to supplies from Russia,» Serik underlined.

He believes that such dependence must be identified, measured, monitored and gradually reduced where it poses significant risks to the country.