Kazakhstan may face population aging by 2050

According to forecasts by Kazakhstan’s Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF) and the UN, 18.8% of Kazakhstan’s population will be over 60 by 2050. By then, there will be 3.4 working-age Kazakhstanis for every person over 65, down from five today.

The UAPF has published demographic projections. According to the data, as of Jan. 1, 2026, Kazakhstan’s population stood at 20.5 million. Of that total, 47.5% were between the ages of 25 and 65 (9.73 million people), while 9.6% were over 65 (1.9 million). By 2050, the population is expected to reach 26.5 million.

Factors such as rising life expectancy and declining birth rates are expected to increase the share of older people and reduce the ratio of the working-age population to the number of pensioners.

As a result, by 2050, according to UN and UAPF projections, Kazakhstanis aged over 60 will account for 18.8% of the population, meaning nearly one in five citizens will be of pre-retirement age or older. The UAPF noted that, under the international classification, this represents a «very high level of population aging.»

In 25 years, the burden on working-age Kazakhstanis from people of retirement age will also increase. Thus, in 2025, the ratio of people of working age (25-64) to people over 65 was 4.95 working-age people per one older person. By 2050, this figure is expected to decline by more than 1.4 times, meaning that there will be only 3.42 working-age people per one pensioner (over 65).

«Under these conditions, the importance of a funded pension system is increasing. In such a system, future pensions are formed through contributions from employees and employers, without creating long-term deferred obligations for the budget, while ensuring the balance and financial sustainability of the pension system and reducing its dependence on demographic factors,» the UAPF noted.