Kazakhstan’s real GDP growth is expected to remain above 5% in 2027-2029, but below the 2025 level. According to a baseline forecast presented by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin, the economy is projected to grow by 5.3% in 2027, 5.5% in 2028 and 5.4% in 2029. For comparison, Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 6.5% in 2025.
At the same time, different sectors of the economy will grow at noticeably different rates. Construction, transport, and information and communications are expected to grow the fastest.
Construction growth is forecast at 16% in 2027, 16.1% in 2028 and 17.3% in 2029. Transport and warehousing are expected to grow by 10.2%, 10.4% and 10.5%, respectively. In the information and communications sector, growth is forecast at 9%, 9% and 9.5%.
Manufacturing is expected to grow by around 6% annually: 6% in 2027, 5.9% in 2028 and 5.8% in 2029. Agriculture is forecast to grow at a more moderate pace: 5.1%, 5.2% and 5.3%, respectively.
Trade is forecast to grow by 6.2% in 2027, slowing to 5.7% in 2028 and 5.3% in 2029.
The slowest growth is expected in the mining sector. Growth is forecast at 1.6% in 2027, accelerating to 3.7% in 2028 before slowing to 0.8% in 2029. Overall, industry is expected to grow by 4.1% in 2027, 5.1% in 2028 and 4% in 2029.
According to Zhumangarin, economic growth will be driven by increased production in non-oil sectors. At the same time, manufacturing is expected to grow faster than mining.
Based on the forecast, nominal GDP is expected to increase from 199.3 trillion tenge in 2027 to 245 trillion tenge in 2029 (from approximately $463.3 billion to $536.3 billion).
At the same time, the government expects inflation to slow gradually. In 2027, the forecast range is 7.5% to 9.5%, narrowing to 6% to 8% in 2028-2029. As of July 2026, annual inflation in Kazakhstan stands at 10.2%.
In addition, the government expects inflation to slow in 2026 as well. According to the forecast, it is expected to settle at 9% to 11%, compared with 12.3% in 2025.
