Russia considers new railway to China that could rival trans-Caspian route
The Russian government is considering building the Trans-Altai Railway, which would connect Russia and China through their roughly 55-kilometer border in the Altai Mountains between Kazakhstan and Mongolia.
According to Russian newspaper Kommersant, the project is being considered in response to President Vladimir Putin’s July instruction to examine the creation of a new transport corridor.
The proposed railway is intended to provide an alternative to southern maritime routes between Asia and Europe and compete with the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), which connects China and Europe while bypassing Russia.
In 2025, the TITR carried 4.12 million tons of cargo, including around 77,000 TEU of containerized cargo. The route, launched in 2017, runs through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia before continuing to Europe via Turkey.
Route options and challenges
Russian authorities are studying four possible routes for the new railway: two starting in Biysk, one in Tashtagol and one in Abaza. All four would terminate at the Chinese railway station of Aweitan. Depending on the option, the route would be between 825 and 1,123 kilometers long, including 228 kilometers in China.
A similar corridor through the Altai region was explored in the 2000s as a potential route for the Altai gas pipeline. Still, it was ultimately shelved amid difficult negotiations, challenging terrain and concerns over crossing the protected Ukok Plateau, part of a UNESCO World Heritage site.
Russian Railways revisited the idea of a rail connection through the Altai in 2021. At the time, one proposal involved building sections of the railway on elevated structures and envisaged an annual capacity of around 30 million tons, primarily for coal and other cargo from Russian regions.
Russia’s Ministry of Transport is now proposing that the Ministry of Natural Resources examine the project’s environmental restrictions and that its feasibility be discussed with relevant agencies and through the Russian-Chinese transport subcommission. The ministry has also proposed preparing a preliminary feasibility study covering the different route options.
Experts question project’s viability
Kuzbass authorities have expressed strong interest in the project. Regional Governor Ilya Seredyuk said logistics accounts for 80% of the price of coal exported to China through Russia’s Far East.
However, analysts have questioned whether future demand would justify the enormous cost of building the railway.
Mikhail Burmistrov, head of Infoline-Analytics, noted that China’s rapid expansion of renewable energy is limiting the long-term prospects for thermal coal exports.
According to Burmistrov, even rising railway tariffs and problems affecting Russia’s southern ports are unlikely to create enough long-term demand to justify the trillions of rubles in capital expenditures that new transport infrastructure would require.
