National Bank of Kazakhstan Governor Timur Suleimenov expressed hope that inflation will decline significantly by the end of September or October, allowing the National Bank to cut its base rate more aggressively than previously anticipated. The recently reduced base rate stands at 16.25%.
«As long as inflation remains high and monetary aggregates grow faster than nominal GDP rather than real GDP, it is clear that we need to maintain moderately tight conditions. I very much hope that inflation data for September and October will give us grounds to move a little further and more boldly with the base rate, but we can’t guarantee anything,» he told reporters on the sidelines of the Astana Finance Days 2026.
Lower base rate could reduce lending costs
Suleimenov said a reduction in the base rate would eventually allow banks to lower lending rates. In his view, the current real interest rate on loans, after accounting for inflation, is around 8% a year.
«It’s below 20% — 18%-19% [the lending rate in Kazakhstan],» Suleimenov said. «That is, this rate is moving. We need to look not at the rate alone, but at the rate minus inflation, that is, the real rate.»
He also said he would be the first to welcome a decline in inflation, as it would lead to lower lending rates and help revive the economy.
«I’ll probably be the first to rejoice when our inflation declines. This will allow us to lower the base rate, and interest rates on credit products will follow suit,» he said.
Base rate has fallen since June
On Sept. 4, the National Bank lowered the base rate from 16.75% to 16.25%. In June and July, the rate was reduced from 18% to 17% and from 17% to 16.75%, respectively.
By the end of August, annual inflation in Kazakhstan had fallen to 9.8%. The last time the country recorded single-digit inflation was in February 2025, when it stood at 9.4%. In March 2025, consumer prices and service costs reached 10%.
