Economy

The transfer trap: Why high oil prices aren’t saving Kazakhstan’s wealth fund

The paradox of Kazakhstan’s oil fund in 2026
The paradox of Kazakhstan’s oil fund in 2026 / Photo: Shutterstock, photo editor: Adelina Mamedova

In the first quarter of 2026, Kazakhstan’s National Fund, a sovereign wealth fund financed by oil revenues, received 784 billion tenge (about $1.6 billion) from oil companies — an increase of 162 billion tenge compared with the previous year. However, the additional revenue did not offset the 800 billion tenge withdrawn from the fund.

Limited impact of high oil prices

During a recent briefing following a government meeting, journalists asked about the impact of high oil prices on the lives of Kazakhstanis.

The Ministry of Finance said the primary beneficiary of rising oil prices was the National Fund, which collects taxes from oil companies. The state budget itself received only export duties totaling 40.5 billion tenge.

Read also: How the Iran conflict will drive the dollar in 2026.

At the same meeting, First Deputy Chairman of the National Bank Yerulan Zhamaubayev said 800 billion tenge had been transferred from the National Fund to the state budget in the first quarter. As a result, withdrawals exceeded fund revenues despite higher oil prices.

Officials cite volatility and delayed effects

Vice Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin said oil prices remain volatile and their impact on the economy is mixed. The recent price increase helped offset a 20% decline in oil production at the beginning of the year. However, he said more significant effects are expected in the coming months.