The National Bank of Kazakhstan may cut its base rate at its June meeting, according to Akylzhan Baimagambetov, deputy governor of the central bank.
«A transition to a lower base rate is possible if inflation slows sustainably. Currently, the National Bank is closely monitoring the economic situation to make a balanced and economically sound decision,» Baimagambetov said. «The June meeting will be pivotal, and macroeconomic forecasts will be updated. The Monetary Policy Committee does not make decisions in advance; they are based on a comprehensive analysis and discussion of current data.»
Notably, at its latest meeting, the committee kept the base rate unchanged at 18%. The rate has remained at that level since Oct. 10, 2025
Conditions for easing
Baimagambetov said that if inflation continues to decline steadily and no new risks emerge, the central bank will consider a gradual reduction in the base rate.
In making its decision, the regulator will assess a range of factors, including actual inflation trends and how they compare with forecasts, inflation expectations, domestic demand, external economic conditions, and fiscal policy parameters.
Inflation trends
The deputy governor noted that annual inflation in Kazakhstan has declined from a peak of 12.9% in September 2025 to 11% in March 2026.
«There is a decline, but it remains moderate,» he said. «The inflation is still in double digits and roughly twice the National Bank’s target. This means pro-inflationary factors persist, and it is too early to speak of full stabilization.»
Ongoing risks
Baimagambetov also pointed to risks stemming from the expiration of a moratorium on tariff increases for housing and utilities, as well as fuel prices, which ended April 1.
Additional pressure on prices is coming from external factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, he said.
