For Kazakhstan’s SME sector, the end of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 marked a period of adaptation not only to tight monetary conditions, but also to a series of fiscal and regulatory changes. On one hand, business activity was constrained by high borrowing costs as inflationary pressures persisted. On the other, small businesses were preparing for the replacement of simplified taxation systems with a unified Special Tax Regime. Together, these factors significantly affected SME operations and business behavior.
Monetary tightening and lending slowdown
Throughout 2025, the National Bank of Kazakhstan gradually tightened monetary policy to curb rising inflation. The base rate increased from 15.25% in January to 18.0% in October. As a result, nominal borrowing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises increased, directly affecting SME lending performance.
According to the National Bank, the business loan portfolio — including loans issued by the Development Bank of Kazakhstan — grew 21.2% year over year, reaching 18.5 trillion tenge (about $35.5 billion). However, after adjusting for inflation, which accelerated to 12.3% by year-end, real portfolio growth amounted to just 7.9%.
The SME loan portfolio expanded at a slower pace, rising 18.6% in nominal terms to 11.1 trillion tenge, or 5.6% in real terms. Small businesses were reluctant to increase borrowing under these conditions: their loan portfolio grew only slightly faster than inflation, up 13.0% nominally, translating into real growth of just 0.6%. By contrast, loan balances for medium-sized businesses increased 36.9%, equivalent to 21.9% real growth after adjusting for inflation.
The situation was markedly different in 2024. The loan portfolio for small businesses increased 20.6% in nominal terms, while medium-sized businesses recorded 17.5% growth. With inflation at 8.6%, this translated into real growth of 11.0% and 8.2%, respectively.
Large businesses performed considerably better in 2025. The loan portfolio for large companies increased 31.0%, suggesting that banks increasingly favored larger, financially stronger borrowers.
Sectoral shifts in SME lending
The sectoral composition of lending to Kazakhstan’s SMEs changed significantly during the period. The shares of trade and industrial enterprises — traditionally the largest recipients of bank lending — declined by 2.4 and 2.8 percentage points, respectively, in the overall lending structure. At the same time, the share of SME lending increased in the transportation sector, up 2.1 percentage points, and in «other industries,» up 1.4 percentage points.
Communications companies posted the fastest growth, with lending increasing 93.4% year over year to 172 billion tenge. Nevertheless, the sector accounted for only 1.5% of total new SME loans issued in 2025.
The volume of loans issued to industrial SMEs declined even in nominal terms, falling 6.6% year over year. Lending to trade and agricultural enterprises increased nominally, but declined in real terms after accounting for inflation.
Despite negative real growth, the trade sector retained its position as the largest borrower within SME lending. In 2025, trade accounted for 44.4% of all loans issued to small and medium-sized businesses.
Regional lending trends
Kazakhstan’s regional lending landscape also showed unusual patterns in 2025. Almaty — home to the country’s largest concentration of SMEs — recorded a 13.2% year-over-year decline in new lending in nominal terms. Negative growth was also observed in the East Kazakhstan region, where lending fell 0.4%.
In the Abai, Karaganda, and Ulytau regions, growth in new lending remained below the inflation rate, at 11.6%, 7.5%, and 4.3%, respectively.
The strongest lending growth was recorded in Astana, where new SME loans increased 52.7%. Significant growth was also observed in the Zhetysu region (40.0%), Turkestan region (36.2%), Zhambyl region (35.5%), and Almaty region (34.6%).
Expanding role of state support
The activities of the Damu Entrepreneurship Development Fund partially offset SME financing pressures and helped prevent a deeper decline in business lending. In 2025, the volume of SME loans issued through Damu-supported facilities increased 34.9%, reaching 2.1 trillion tenge. The share of these loans in total SME lending rose to 17.4%, compared with 14.1% in 2024.
State support for entrepreneurship also underwent broader reforms in 2025 and early 2026. The updated framework centered on the «Orleu» (“Progress”) and «Isker Aimaq» (“Business-prone region”) programs, with Orleu launched in June 2025.
Under these programs, concessional financing for investment purposes can reach up to 7 billion tenge for terms of up to 10 years, while working-capital loans can total up to 3.5 billion tenge for terms of up to three years. The maximum interest rate for borrowers is capped at 12.6% annually.
The total budget for the program amounts to 750 billion tenge, including 300 billion tenge from Damu’s own and borrowed funds, while an additional 450 billion tenge is expected to be mobilized through partner commercial banks.
In exchange for state support, the government required participating businesses to increase payroll expenditures and tax payments during the concessional financing period.
Authorities also introduced the digital tenge as a lending currency within the program framework to improve transparency in the use of funds and reduce corruption risks.
Expansion of concessional lending programs
Loans issued under the Orleu program totaled 159 billion tenge in the third quarter of 2025 and 241 billion tenge in the fourth quarter. As of early March 2026, the program had financed projects worth 605 billion tenge.
More than half of all concessional loans issued through the program went to manufacturing companies. A significant share of financing was also directed to businesses operating in transportation and warehousing, which accounted for 15.7% of the portfolio, and the HoReCa sector — hotels, restaurants, and catering — which represented 14.0%.
Following the launch of Orleu, the government introduced the Isker Aimaq program at the end of 2025 to support small businesses in single-industry towns and rural areas. Authorities view the initiative as both an economic and social development tool for the regions.
Under the Isker Aimaq program, entrepreneurs operating in priority sectors — including manufacturing, agricultural processing, and handicrafts — can obtain loans of up to 200 million tenge for investment projects or working capital needs. The state subsidizes 40% of the nominal interest rate on bank loans, which is set at the National Bank of Kazakhstan base rate plus 4 percentage points.
To qualify, businesses must implement commercially viable projects, create new jobs, and demonstrate annual income growth at or above the inflation rate. For investment projects, the program requires the creation of at least one new job for every 100 million tenge borrowed.
Shift in lending policy priorities
The short-term direction of corporate lending policy — including SME financing — is outlined in the Joint Action Program of the government, the National Bank of Kazakhstan, and the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market for 2026-2028.
One of the program’s key objectives is to redirect bank liquidity from the retail segment toward business financing. To achieve this, authorities plan to discourage excessive consumer lending through differentiated taxation and macroprudential regulation.
Beginning in April 2026, banks will be required to maintain a countercyclical capital buffer equal to 2% of risk-weighted assets tied to retail lending. In Kazakhstan, this segment is dominated primarily by unsecured consumer loans.
According to the regulator, the new requirements are intended to encourage banks to redirect more liquidity into the real economy and expand financing for productive sectors.
