Extreme heat could be far more damaging to global rice production than previously thought, according to a study by German scientists who analyzed hundreds of field experiments. The study was conducted by scientists from the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in collaboration with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Existing agricultural models may significantly underestimate the effects of high temperatures on rice yields. The researchers analyzed 214 field experiments in which temperatures were artificially increased and compared the results with projections from seven agricultural models. They found that an average temperature increase of just 1 degree Celsius resulted in actual yield losses of 8.1%, while most models predicted losses of only 3.8%.
Rice is particularly vulnerable to extreme heat
Rice is especially vulnerable to high temperatures during panicle and grain formation. According to the study, in more than 70% of the experimental plots, extreme heat accounted for more than half of the total yield losses. Temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius were particularly damaging.
The researchers said current models may not adequately account for damage to rice plants during extreme heat events. As a result, the effects of climate change on this essential food crop could be considerably more severe than previously estimated.
Rice is a staple food for more than half of the world’s population. Significant declines in yields could therefore affect both food prices and food security in many countries.
Kazakhstan faces similar challenges
The issue is also relevant to Kazakhstan, where rice farmers in the south are increasingly dealing with high temperatures and water shortages.
Journalist and blogger Lukpan Akhmedyarov recently visited rice farms in southern Kazakhstan and spoke with local farmers. They described how heat and limited water supplies are affecting their harvests and explained why growing rice is becoming increasingly difficult.
