Kazakhstan’s crude oil production reached 99.6 million tons in 2025, up 12% year-over-year, following the long-awaited commissioning of the Third-Generation Plant at the massive Tengiz field. Aggregate national extraction capacity reached 110 million tons annually. However, analysts project domestic output will peak at 100.9 million tons in 2028 before plateauing and entering a structural decline.
Tengizchevroil surges following expansion completion
Joint venture Tengizchevroil led national production rankings as output jumped 40.3% to 39 million tons, representing 39.2% of total domestic oil extraction. The performance followed the completion of the $47.8 billion Future Growth Project. Delayed by nearly three years and exceeding cost estimates by $11 billion, the new facilities boosted daily production despite temporary autumn maintenance shutdowns and infrastructure disruptions.
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The record output intensified negotiations over extending Tengizchevroil’s operating concession beyond its 2033 expiration date. Chevron, controlling a 50% stake, generated $1.6 billion in net earnings from Tengiz in 2025, accounting for 12.7% of its global corporate profit. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met Chevron Chief Executive Michael Wirth three times during the year to discuss terms. While Wirth emphasized that contractual extension talks require time, market reports indicate Kazakh officials seek a $10 billion upfront payment alongside increasing state energy firm KazMunayGas’s equity share from 20% to 35%.
Kashagan and Karachaganak face infrastructure bottlenecks
North Caspian Operating Company ranked second, raising Kashagan field production 4.8% to 18.3 million tons. However, future expansion remains constrained by gas treatment capacity. A planned 1 billion cubic meter gas processing plant has been delayed until 2027, while a larger 2.5 billion cubic meter facility managed by QazaqGaz was pushed to 2033. Separately, ExxonMobil proposed an $80 billion offshore development targeting West Kashagan to produce up to 600,000 barrels daily, tied to resolving pending state arbitration claims.
Read also: Karachaganak top roles to include more Kazakh nationals.
Karachaganak Petroleum Operating held third place, maintaining output at 12.1 million tons. The consortium completed its gas re-injection compressor expansion ahead of schedule, helping preserve reservoir pressure through its 2038 contract expiration.
Mature fields experience structural decline
Operators managing mature onshore assets in western Kazakhstan faced depletion pressures. Mangistaumunaigas and Ozenmunaigas held output flat at 6.2 million and 5.1 million tons, respectively. Embamunaigas expanded production by 2.2% to 2.85 million tons following new field additions. Conversely, PetroKazakhstan and Kazgermunai experienced double-digit production drops exceeding 13% as depleted Kyzylorda fields continued their natural decline.
