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Experts are still debating the pros and cons of the base rate change in Kazakhstan even a day before the National Bank announces its monthly decision on this monetary policy tool.

Let’s take a look at key factors that influence inflation in Kazakhstan.

The first factor, and the most important in my opinion, is the exchange rate. Last year, the tenge exchange rate was strong and stable towards almost all currencies of its trading partners. Even though inflation in Russia has been driven by the ruble’s devaluation against the U.S. dollar, the tenge rate is strengthening. As a result, Kazakhstan...

Russia and Kazakhstan have signed a new protocol for the bilateral agreement on oil transit to China. Under the document, Russia will boost its oil exports to China through Kazakhstan’s territory from 7 million tons of oil to 10 million tons per year. This figure was secured in the document from the very start.

For its oil exports, Russia uses the Tuymazy-Omsk-Novosibirsk pipeline (TON-2) that stretches through Priirtyshsk and Atasu in Kazakhstan to Alashankou in China. Under the agreement, Kazakhstan will be able to supply about one million tons of oil and gas condensate to its petrochemical plant in Pavlodar...

Kazakhstan and Italy want to develop bilateral air travel. In particular, direct flights between Astana and Rome and Astana and Milan are expected to be launched this year, according to Lupo Rattazzi, CEO of Neos, an Italian airline.

During his meeting with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Rattazzi said that close cooperation with Neas would contribute to the development of Kazakhstan’s civil aviation and the transportation industry of the country as a whole.

«The number of flights on the route between Almaty and Milan is going to be expanded. Also, new flights between Astana and Rome and Astana...

The Almaty International Airport will open its new international terminal two months ahead of schedule. According to CEO of TAV Airports Serkan Kaptan, the terminal will be ready to open in June of this year. He reported this directly to Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov.

As Kaptan noted, construction activities are 87 complete.

«We are going to open our new international terminal in June 2024, while the existing terminal will be used for domestic flights only,» Kaptan said.

He also highlighted that the combined capacity of the two terminals will reach 14 million passengers per year...

The European Parliament (EP) wants the EU to revise its strategy toward Central Asian countries as the geopolitical situation in the region is changing, the DW reported. The parliament’s new resolution suggests expanding political and economic cooperation between the EU and Central Asia.

During voting on January 17, 2024, 543 MPs supported the resolution, while 42 voted against the document and 44 abstained from voting.

According to German MP Karsten Lucke, «Russia’s isolation as a result of its war of aggression against Ukraine, the strengthening of trade routes through Central Asia bypassing Russia, the planned enlargement of the EU in...

The Agency on Regulation and Development of the Financial Market (ARDFM) has prepared a set of amendments to the country’s Tax Code aimed at revising criteria for dividend tax exemption in favor of Kazakhstani residents. The draft document is available for public consideration.

The current rules allow both domestic and foreign investors to not pay taxes on dividends they received from stocks traded on Kazakhstani exchanges if they meet two conditions: first, they have to carry out at least 50 transactions with a certain stock per month; second, the total volume of these transactions should be at least $55,234.

Now...

According to the Prosecutor’s Office of the Abay region, local subsoil users have paid $231,735 in fines for not investing in the development of the regional infrastructure despite obligations to do so under their contracts with the government.

As the law enforcement agency noted, every year subsoil users must allocate funds for the socio-economic development of the region and its infrastructure.

During this inspection, the prosecutors identified 26 companies that avoided meeting their obligations.

«As a result of this inspection subsoil users were forced to pay the government $231,735 in fines,» the agency said in a...

Transnational oil companies operating at the Kashagan oil field are close to settling with the government of Kazakhstan which wanted them to pay $5 billion in fines for violation of environmental legislation, Bloomberg reported.

According to people familiar with the matter, foreign partners of the project such as Eni S.p.A, Shell plc, Exxon Mobil Corp. and TotalEnergies SE have prepared a draft settlement of the argument. They want the government to drop its idea of applying ecological sanctions against them in return for additional investments in social projects. The companies are allegedly ready to allocate $110 million for this purpose...

According to Sputnik Kyrgyzstan, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Kyrgyz military crashed in Bishkek during a training flight. One individual has died, while seven crew members have been wounded.

The aircraft crashed in the morning on January 17 in the Frunze-1 district of the capital city of Bishkek. The Defense Ministry of Kyrgyzstan has already confirmed the incident.

«On January 17, a helicopter of the Kyrgyzstan Air Force reported a crash landing. According to preliminary information, one man has died,» the agency said in a statement.

Later, Defense Minister Baktybolot Bekbolotov said that the late...

Freedom Finance, part of the international Freedom Holding Corp., operating in Kazakhstan under the Freedom Broker brand, increased its assets by 54.5% ($246.8 million) to $700 million, according to the company’s press release.

The increase was reached thanks to new investments. Thus, the brokerage company has boosted its portfolio of securities by $184 million or 64%, while its investments in the capital of other companies and subordinated debt increased by $66 million or 45%.

On the other hand, the company’s liabilities soared by $175.4 million or 93.1%. An increase in the amount of repo transactions was the key driver of...

According to Energy Minister of Kazakhstan Almasadam Satkaliyev, Kazakhstan’s energy consumption increased from 112.9 billion to 115 kilowatts last year. The energy production level hasn’t changed though and is at 112.8 billion kilowatts per hour.

«In 2023, the consumption of electricity was at 115 billion kilowatts per hour (112.9 billion kilowatts per hour in 2022), while the power production was at 112.8 billion kilowatts per hour (112.8 billion kilowatts per hour in 2022). Kazakhstan imported 3.4 billion kilowatts per hour from neighboring countries and exported 1.4 billion kilowatts,» he said during a cabinet meeting.

As...

The Ministry of Finance has published a public security issuing schedule for 2024. According to this document, the ministry is going to borrow about $11.4 billion this year, a 5.5% increase compared to 2023.

Long-term treasury bonds (maturity up to ten years) of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan (MEUKAM) will account for most of this sum. The ministry also plans to issue one-year yield bonds for $1.1 billion; two-year bonds for $1 billion and three-year bonds for $1.12 billion. Bonds with a maturity of 16 years (the longest financial tool of the public debt in Kazakhstan...

The General Prosecutor’s Office of Kazakhstan has completed its criminal investigation against Samat Abish, nephew of Ex-President Nursultan Nazarbayev. He’s been accused of abuse of power during the «January events» (the nationwide unrest in January 2022) in the country.

What happened? According to the General Prosecutor’s Office, the investigation against Abish, a former first deputy head of the National Security Committee (KNB), has been completed.

«The pre-trial investigation against Abish under article 362, part 4 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan was completed and transferred to the court,» the agency said in a...

Dodo Brands, a parent company for Dodo Pizza, a Russian chain of pizza restaurants, is preparing for redomiciliation to the Astana International Financial Center (AIFC), according to the company’s channel on Telegram. Once the redomiciliation happens, it will be the third such move after redomiciliation to the AIFC by Polymetal and Fix Price.

Currently, Dodo Brands is registered in the British Virgin Islands. Even though the holding’s board of directors has already approved the move, the final decision about redomiciliation must be made by the general meeting of shareholders, which is occurring online from January 10 to January 26.

Dodo...

As Evgeniya Baltatarova, a journalist from Buratiya (Russia), has written on her Telegram, Kazakhstani authorities have prevented her from leaving the country when she was heading to Paris. She was detained at the Astana airport. As a result, she lost money she spent on air tickets and a hotel.

Later, Kazakhstani journalist Daniyar Moldabekov reported that Baltatarova was released from the police station at the airport.

«She was told that she can take a flight to France now if she wants, but she has no money to buy a new ticket. She lost about $1,000 because...

According to Arman Shakkaliyev, minister of trade of Kazakhstan, there was not a single case of breaching sanctions imposed by the EU against Russia over the past six months.

As the official noted, when David O’Sullivan, International Special Envoy for the Implementation of EU Sanctions visited Astana in November 2023, he expressed his satisfaction with Kazakhstan’s cooperation in the sphere of export control and sanction regime against Russia.

How does export control work? According to Shakkaliyev, Kazakhstan and the EU regularly exchange information and adjust the list of goods subject to export control right after each change in sanction lists.

According to the annual Global Firepower ranking, Kazakhstan is ranked 58th out of 145 counties in terms of military power, ahead of all its allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – but one, which is Russia.

What are the positions of the CSTO member states? Russia is ranked second after the USA as it was last year. Kazakhstan is ranked 58th, which is five notches higher than last year; Belarus is 64th, Uzbekistan 65th, Kyrgyzstan – 100th, Armenia – 102nd and Tajikistan – 107th.

How did the ranking look in the...

According to the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan, the share of experts expecting that the base rate will be cut soon has risen from 76% to 94%.

The vast majority of interviewed experts expect the rate to be cut to 15% to 15.5%. Moreover, the National Bank is capable of lowering the rate «more decisively» during the next 12 months. The rate, for example, can reach 11.25% within a year (minus 450 basis points) following a decline in inflation expectations from 10.6% to 9.7%. In 2023, the regulator lowered the base rate by 100 basis points.

During the last similar...

KazMunayGas (KMG) is considering the possibility of building a shipyard at the Caspian Sea, according to Yerbolat Mendybayev, head of the company’s department for transportation and logistics.

«On December 2, 2023, KMG and ADP (Abu Dhabi Ports Group) signed an agreement of principles related to establishing a ship repair facility and a shipyard in Kazakhstan. Now, we are creating a working group on the issue. We are going to examine all shipyards in our country and then we will prepare a development plan,” he told the press service of the company.

Mendybayev also noted that members of the working group...

Two investment management companies from Russia have filed lawsuits against Kazakhstan’s Central Securities Depository (CSD), according to Forbes, citing a website of the Russian legal system.

On January 9, 2024, an arbitrary court in the city of Moscow registered a lawsuit from Digital Assets Management against the CSD and Euroclear, a Belgium-based securities depository, which froze Russian investors’ assets in the spring of 2022. These assets were kept through a corresponding account of the National Settlement Depository (part of MOEX that was hit by the EU sanctions in 2022). Now, the company wants to take back $829,290. It also filed...

According to Aibek Smadiyarov, the official spokesperson of Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry, ten Kazakhstanis are currently in Ecuador where the local government has declared a state of emergency due to a spike in violence

How many Kazakhstanis are in Ecuador now?

«Currently, we have seven Kazakhstani citizens on consular register in Ecuador. Apart from them we also have a family of three people from Kazakhstan who have come to Ecuador as tourists,» the ministry said.

What is the current condition of Kazakhstanis? According to Smadiyarov, the consul called every one of them. He instructed these people...

The Financial Monitoring Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Ministry of Communications and Information reported that the website of Finam, one of the largest brokerage companies in Russia, is no longer accessible in Kazakhstan due to suspicion of being involved in organizing a Ponzi scheme.

According to the ministry, the finam.ru website has been in the Cybernadzor system since July 5, 2022, due to involvement in organizing a Ponzi scheme and other fraudulent activities.

«The inspection of the finam.ru website revealed signs of Ponzi schemes such as promises of high and rapid yields for...

In 2023, monitoring the Earth from space helped Kazakhstani authorities identify 77 new cases of illegal mining within the country’s borders. The technology also revealed that almost one million hectares of cropland are out of use, the press service of the Ministry of Digital Development, Innovations and Aerospace Industry said.

What has the data said? The space monitoring revealed 2,503 cases of illegal mining, including 77 new cases in 2023. Moreover, a thorough inspection of the Earth’s surface from space has shown that 900,000 hectares of cropland are unused.

«As a result of the space monitoring...

The U.N. has published its World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024, a forecast on inflation and GDP growth for various countries including Kazakhstan in 2024 and 2025. The document is available on the organization’s website.

According to the U.N., the country’s GDP will grow at 4.8% next year. At the same time, inflation is expected to decline from 9.8% in 2023 to 8%.

In 2025, the inflation rate in Kazakhstan is going to decrease further to 5.8%, while its GDP will grow by just 4%, the U.N. report said.

«In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS...