Kazakhstan’s exports declined 3.2% year over year in 2025 to $79.0 billion, primarily because of unfavorable global market conditions. Exports of raw materials fell 4.5% to $50.7 billion, while shipments of processed goods proved more resilient, declining just 0.8% to $28.4 billion. As a result of greater export diversification and reduced dependence on global prices for individual commodities, the share of processed goods in total exports increased by 0.9 percentage points, rising from 35.0% at the end of 2024 to 35.9% in 2025.
In November 2025, Kazakhstan adopted a new trade policy development framework covering the next five years. Under the strategy, exports of non-resource goods and services are expected to increase from $41 billion in 2025 to $52 billion by 2030. Despite steady growth in shipments of several non-resource products in recent years, achieving that target may prove challenging. An analysis of 2025 trade flows shows that non-resource exports, while less exposed than commodity exports, remain vulnerable to external economic and geopolitical factors.
Processed exports remain highly concentrated
To better understand the structure of non-resource exports, Kursiv Research analyzed several major product groups using the Broad Economic Categories (BEC) classification.
Exports of processed goods remain highly concentrated. The largest share consists of products in the category “Processed primary products for industry, not elsewhere specified.” In 2025, export revenue from these products edged down 0.4% year over year to $19.5 billion, accounting for 68.6% of Kazakhstan’s total non-resource exports. Although the category as a whole posted almost no change, several notable shifts occurred within it.
Despite record physical shipments of Kazakh uranium last year — nearly 30,000 tons — export revenue from uranium sales declined 8.1% year over year to $4.2 billion. Shipments could have been even higher, but Kazatomprom revised its 2025 production target downward from an initial 30,500-31,500 tons to 25,000-26,500 tons because of production constraints, particularly a shortage of sulfuric acid.
Copper exports face growing competition
Exports of copper cathodes declined 2.2% to $3.6 billion, while shipment volumes fell 8.9%. China has historically been the primary buyer of Kazakh copper. In 2025, however, Kazakhstan’s exporters faced increased competition from suppliers in Chile and Peru. At the same time, China’s procurement strategy has evolved. By acquiring mining assets in resource-rich countries, Beijing is seeking to shift from importing processed ores and refined products to importing raw materials for domestic processing as part of a broader effort to reduce dependence on global supply chains.
Kazakh exporters, however, were able to redirect part of their shipments to Turkey. As a result, refined copper exports increased 9.4% by volume and 16.4% by value in 2025. The launch of new metallurgical facilities is expected to support further export growth.
Other major commodities in this category — including silver, zinc, gold and aluminum — generally posted positive results. A new entrant also appeared in the top 10 export products: “other animal feed products.” Shipments increased 2.5-fold year over year to $614 million. According to the Russian Export Center, these products are classified as high-value-added goods. All exports were shipped to China.
Capital equipment posts solid growth
The second-largest export category is “Capital equipment (except transport equipment),” which includes a wide range of investment goods that generally have higher value added than primary industrial products. Shipments in this category increased 6.2% year over year to $2.3 billion.
The main growth driver was fuel elements (fuel assemblies), with exports reaching $645 million, up 81.5% year over year. Fuel element exports began in 2022 and have expanded steadily since then, allowing the product to enter the top 10 Kazakh exports for the first time in 2025. Other major products in this category include smartphones, aluminum containers, routers and switches, metal furniture, tablets and laptops, tracked excavators, refrigerators and freezers, centrifugal pumps, and bulldozers.
Some of these products are either not manufactured in Kazakhstan or are produced only in limited quantities, suggesting the presence of re-export flows. Customs data indicate that heavy construction equipment, including excavators and bulldozers, as well as electronics such as switches and laptops, are shipped primarily to Russia. Smartphones appear to follow a different pattern: Kazakhstan serves as a regional transit hub, with shipments redistributed across Central Asia and Mongolia.
Read also: Ukraine’s war drives Kazakhstan’s exports of laptops, bulldozers to Russia.
